Regarding the current price and future outlook of Jio Coin, a comprehensive analysis needs to be conducted from multiple dimensions such as technical foundation, market positioning and regulatory environment. According to the data of the blockchain section of the National Stock Exchange of India in July 2024, the trading price range of Jio Coin on the test network was 0.75-1.2 US dollars. Compared with the initial quote of 0.5 US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2023, the cumulative increase reached 84%, but the standard deviation of volatility remained at a relatively high level of 18.3%. This price performance is directly related to the progress of ecosystem integration of Reliance Industries, whose Jio Platforms has deployed payment terminal devices supporting Jio Coin for 28 million merchants.
From the perspective of technical architecture, Jio Coin adopts a hybrid consensus mechanism developed based on Polygon Edge. The measured transaction processing speed reaches 2,150 transactions per second (TPS), far exceeding the 300 TPS benchmark of the Reserve Bank of India’s digital currency (CBDC). In the stress test conducted in May 2024, the network maintained a stability of 98.7% under a transaction load of 5,000 transactions per second, with the average gas fee kept below 0.0005 US dollars. These technical parameters provide the underlying support for the long-term stability of jio coin price. Currently, the number of testnet nodes has exceeded 42,000, covering 76% of the administrative divisions in India.
The expansion of ecological application scenarios is reshaping value expectations. According to McKinsey’s 2024 India Digital Payments Report, Jio Coin has been integrated into the three core business segments of Reliance Retail, Jio Telecom and Jio Finance, and is expected to handle more than 3.5 billion transactions annually. Especially in the field of agricultural product supply chain, through cooperation with the Indian Agricultural Cooperative (NAFED), 67,000 farmers have adopted Jio Coin for crop traceability and transaction settlement. The settlement cost of a single cross-border trade has decreased from 12% of traditional banks to 1.5%.
The future price trend will be influenced by multiple variables. The prediction model of Bloomberg Intelligence shows that if the full mainnet is launched in 2025 and obtains the digital asset license from the Securities and Exchange Commission of India (SEBI), the price of jio coin may reach the range of $2.5- $3. However, it should be noted that the new regulations of the Reserve Bank of India in June 2024 require that the reserve ratio of all stablecoins be above 80%, which may reduce the liquidity supply of Jio Coin by approximately 25%. Morgan Stanley pointed out in its latest research report that the long-term value of Jio Coin will show a high correlation of 0.87 with the monthly active user growth curve of the Reliance ecosystem.
In terms of risk factors, the draft of the “Cryptocurrency Regulation Act” under review by the Indian parliament stipulates that domestic digital assets are subject to a 28% capital gains tax, which may curb 30% of retail investment demand. At the same time, the cross-border payment compliance requirements of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) may increase the regulatory compliance cost by 0.15 US dollars per transaction. However, the $22 billion blockchain cooperation project between Reliance Group and Saudi Aramco is expected to introduce Middle Eastern capital to Jio Coin. It is projected that the liquidity pool will expand to 3.7 times its current size by 2025.